The financial crisis hit construction hard. Banks are cutting lending, projects are frozen, and the fate of millions of migrant workers on construction sites is in question. Mikhail Delyagin warns of rising crime and urges support for the sector if projects are completed and migrant workers leave organized, while others say they will move into trade and services. Time will tell.

The financial crisis is gathering momentum: many enterprises are cutting production volumes. The hardest blow has fallen on the construction business, which lives entirely on loans. Some Russian banks have in fact suspended lending to builders, others have tightened the terms of collateral, increased the amount of property collateral and the share of the investor’s own financing, and also raised the loan interest rate. In turn, construction companies have already “frozen” most of their projects because of the lack of bank financing.
It is no secret to anyone that the main feature of Russian urban development is the huge number of migrant workers employed in it, most often illegal migrants. What will happen to these people?
Construction sites have become the main refuge for illegal migrants: they have a roof over their heads and some kind of income.
According to experts, there are currently about 12 million migrants in Russia, 11 million of whom are in an illegal status. About half are employed in construction. If construction sites are shut down, most of these people will end up on the street, where they will have to struggle for survival. There is no point in going home — the global default will hit the Central Asian countries even harder than Russia.
What will our society ultimately get? Here is what the well-known analyst and economist Mikhail Delyagin thinks about it: "For them, this will be a threat of starvation and freezing to death, because they, as southerners, are more sensitive to the approaching winter. On the other hand, for residents of large cities this means a sharp rise in crime. And, what is very significant, it will be brutal crime, because people will be fighting for physical survival." He also sees the following way out of the situation: "It is possible and necessary to avoid the emergence of an army of unemployed migrant workers. To do this, the authorities must decide to provide financial support to the construction industry. But on the condition that, with the loan from the budget, the builders complete work on the sites and ensure the organized return of millions of migrant workers to their homeland, after which they report on every ruble."
However, other experts consider the alarm unjustified. Vladimir Mukomel, Director of the Center for Ethnopolitical and Regional Studies, does not believe that laid-off migrant workers will turn to crime. “This is a different contingent — people come to earn money and are interested in long-term prospects. In the conditions of the financial crisis, they will simply have to change jobs. We still have a huge need for low-skilled workers, so from construction sites they will move into the retail niche and the service sector.” Vladimir Mukomel also believes that soon mainly not male builders, but women nannies, caregivers, and cleaners will come to Russia to earn money.
Deputy Director of the Federal Migration Service of Russia Anatoly Kuznetsov also agrees with V. Mukomel. According to him, the processes taking place in the country’s economy will not lead to an increase in crime among foreign labor migrants either. Foreign citizens who work in Russia make a tangible contribution to the country’s economy, Anatoly Kuznetsov says.
Which side the truth will be on — we will see in the near future.