The draft of Russias national security strategy to 2020, prepared under Nikolai Patrushev, sets Russias key priorities in the global security architecture for the next 12 years. The document names the US the main rival, and among the main threats are NATOs advance toward Russias borders, the militarization of space, and intensifying competition for energy resources. Special attention is given to risks in the Arctic, the Middle East, and Central Asia, as well as the role of alliances like BRIC, RIC, and the CSTO.

The draft of the “Strategy for the National Security of the Russian Federation until 2020,” the text of which came into the possession of Kommersant, has outlined the fundamental paths for Russia’s development over the next 12 years in the architecture of global security. The document, developed under the leadership of Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, speaks of Russia’s key role in the world, identifies its main rival—the United States—and warns of impending wars over energy resources.
Work on the “National Security Strategy” has already been completed. Its text has been approved in all seven federal districts, and on December 18 at a joint meeting of the presidium of the Academy of Sciences and the Security Council apparatus. It is expected that on February 20, 2009, the strategy will be approved at an expanded meeting of the Security Council with the participation of Dmitry Medvedev.
The authors of the document note that Russia “has overcome the consequences of the systemic political and socio-economic crisis of the late 20th century” and has restored its capacity to “defend national interests as a key actor in multipolar international relations.”
“Threats to military security include the policy of a number of leading foreign states aimed at achieving overwhelming superiority in the military sphere, above all in strategic nuclear forces, the creation of a global missile defense system, and the militarization of space,” says the section “Ensuring National Security.” “The decisive factor in relations with NATO will remain plans unacceptable to Russia to advance the Alliance’s military infrastructure toward Russia’s borders and attempts to give it global functions that run counter to the norms of international law,” the Security Council document emphasizes.
The strategy’s drafters see a serious danger in the intensifying competition for control over energy resources. The section “The Modern World and Russia: State and Development Trends” lists the regions where the confrontation may become especially pronounced: “International politics will focus on access to sources of energy resources, including in the Middle East, on the Barents Sea shelf and in other Arctic areas, in the Caspian Sea basin, and in Central Asia.”
As a result, the struggle for hydrocarbons could escalate into military confrontation. “Solutions to emerging problems involving the use of military force cannot be ruled out—it may disrupt the existing balance of power near the borders of the Russian Federation and the borders of its allies, and the risk of an increase in the number of states possessing nuclear weapons will grow. The regional balance of power will be disrupted due to the spread of elements of strategic missile defense in Europe and the refusal of a number of states to abide by previously concluded arms control agreements or to circumvent their provisions,” the authors of the document warn.
At the same time, Russia will remain committed to using political, legal, foreign economic, military, and other instruments to protect state sovereignty and national interests. Moscow is not forgetting its allies either. It plans to intensify relations within the G8, G20, RIC (Russia, India, China), and BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) formats. Relations with the CIS, EurAsEC, and CSTO member states are named as the most important direction of foreign policy. The latter is viewed as the “main instrument designed to counter challenges and threats of a military-political and military-strategic nature.”