Scientists from the University of California, Los Angeles concluded that the Arctic Ocean could be ice free by the end of the 21st century. The study notes rapid decline of Arctic ice and possible serious geopolitical and economic consequences.
A group of scientists from the University of California, Los Angeles, has published a study stating that the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free by the end of the 21st century.Researchers compared data obtained using various methods of modeling the state of Arctic ice and adjusted it using satellite information. “We found that under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the Arctic Ocean will be completely free of ice before the end of the 21st century,” the article says.
The Arctic climate is changing very rapidly: from 1979 to 2006, the ice area in September decreased by 25 percent. In September 2007, the area of Arctic ice reached its lowest level since the start of satellite observations, and in September of last year the ice cover was even smaller.
“Such a development raises concerns that in a few decades the Arctic Ocean will be completely free of ice, which will have important geopolitical and economic consequences,” the California researchers said in their article.
The scientists analyzed trends in the reduction of ice area and found a direct relationship between the predicted state of the ice in the 21st century and the scenario that unfolded in the previous century. Thanks to this correlation, they obtained a forecast for changes in ice area in our century.