Oxford mathematicians proposed an unusual way to predict the likelihood of divorce by analyzing 15 minute conversations between spouses on important topics. In a study of 700 couples, the method was accurate in 94 percent of cases and identified five types of marriages from stable to steadily unstable. The key was not the words themselves but the emotional tone and mutual understanding between partners

Oxford mathematicians have developed a simple and effective way to assess the stability of marital relationships. A team of scientists from the University of Oxford, led by mathematics professor James Murray, has developed a method for calculating the probability of divorce in married couples with high accuracy
In the trial, 700 married couples took part, and for 94% of them the mathematicians’ prediction was correct. The experiments were conducted as follows: the spouses were asked to talk for 15 minutes about one of the topics important to them: the family budget, sex, relations with the husband’s or wife’s parents, etc.
Such conversations were recorded and then analyzed: each statement made by the husband or wife was assigned a positive or negative score on a 4-point scale. For example, if a partner’s phrase contained humor or affection, the statement received positive points up to +4. If the experts detected contempt for the spouse, anger, or disgust in the sentence, such a response deserved a negative score of up to -4. After that, the points scored by the spouses separately were presented in the form of graphs.
The points at which the husband’s and wife’s curves intersected clearly illustrated the degree of mutual understanding between the spouses, and therefore the likelihood of divorce for them in the future. If one spouse’s graph was predominantly in the negative area, divorce, according to the authors of the method, was inevitable, which was later confirmed.
Professor Murray proposed his own classification of married couples, according to which all marriages can be conditionally divided into 5 groups, two of which represent fairly stable relationships, two are unstable, and one is intermediate, “stable-unstable.” The greatest chances for a happy, harmonious married life, according to the mathematicians, belong to spouses who are ready for dialogue and maintain friendly partnership relations. Inevitable divorce, on the contrary, awaits couples in whose relationship anger, mutual contempt, and unwillingness to discuss important issues prevail.