The Russian Emergencies Ministry published a forecast for 2009 saying the number of natural emergencies in the country may rise 25 to 35 percent from 2008. Special attention is given to Siberia and Irkutsk region, where higher fire danger, heavy rains, mudflows, landslides, and avalanche risk are expected. Technogenic fires are forecast to decline, but Irkutsk region still remains among the areas with the highest risk of accidents in utilities, energy, and rail systems.
The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations has issued a forecast of emergency conditions for 2009, according to which the number of natural emergencies is expected to be 25 - 35% higher than in 2008.At the beginning of the fire-hazard period, an exceedance of the long-term average fire conditions (number of fire outbreaks, area of landscape fires) is forecast in the territory of the Siberian Federal District and, in particular, in the Irkutsk Region. The number of emergencies associated with hazardous meteorological phenomena is expected to be higher than in 2008. Thus, in the Irkutsk Region, the highest risk of emergencies associated with heavy rainfall is forecast. In June - August, an increase in emergencies associated with mudflows, landslides, and rockfalls is expected in the Irkutsk Region and other constituent entities of the Siberian Federal District. High levels of avalanche danger are forecast in the Siberian Federal District in March - April.
The average annual amount of precipitation will increase. In most of Russia, winter precipitation will be 4 - 6% higher than at present. The most significant increase in winter precipitation is expected in the north of Eastern Siberia (an increase of up to 7 - 9%). Due to climate change, the frequency of flood events caused by heavy rains is forecast to increase by 2 - 3 times in the Far East, Primorye, and the Western and Eastern Sayan Mountains.
According to the forecast, next year there will be a further decline in man-made fires (to 201 - 203 thousand fires) and in the number of people killed in them (to 15.2 - 15.5 thousand people). The largest number of major man-made fires (with the death of 2 or more people) is forecast in the constituent entities of the Far Eastern Federal District, the Siberian Federal District (including the Irkutsk Region), the Ural, Volga, and Southern Federal Districts, and other regions of Russia. The Irkutsk Region has also been included in the list of regions where the highest risk of accidents in municipal life-support systems and power systems, as well as in railway transport, is expected.