At a meeting with Dmitry Medvedev, the revised forecast for Russias social and economic development for 2009 was discussed, which has worsened markedly because of changes in the world economy and oil prices. Under the base scenario, GDP growth is expected at 2.4 percent, industry about 3 percent, and the government will also revise budget revenues and expenditures. The article explains in detail why the authorities are not using an optimistic scenario and how a possible tariff increase may affect the economy and the population.

On Wednesday, President Dmitry Medvedev held a meeting on economic issues. The meeting was held behind closed doors, and was attended by Prime Minister, United Russia party chairman Vladimir Putin and members of the government’s “economic bloc.”
As a result, it became known that the forecast for the country’s social and economic development for 2009 was discussed. “The revision of the forecast is linked to changes in the forecast for the global economy, changes in the forecast for oil prices, and preliminary results of the country’s economic development over 11 months,” explained Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina.
Next year, by macroeconomic indicators, risks becoming Russia’s worst in a decade. And hopes for freezing or at least sharply reducing the previously announced growth rates of tariffs for natural monopolies have so far not been justified.
In total, the government has prepared three possible scenarios for developments in the economy: two inertial ones, differing in oil prices, and a baseline forecast. It should be noted that the optimistic scenario, traditional in such cases, was not considered at all.
“According to the baseline scenario, economic growth in 2009 is expected to be at the level of 2.4%, with some decline in industrial production — about 3%,” the Minister of Economic Development said following the economic meeting at the president’s office. “By the end of this year, based on this forecast, the forecast for budget revenues and expenditures for 2009 will be clarified, and changes to the budget will be introduced at the beginning of next year.”
The dollar exchange rate, the cabinet of ministers predicts, will be in the range of 30.8–31.8 rubles, with the dollar-to-euro rate in the range of 1.25–1.3. If the dollar exchange rate is lower, then the ruble will be worth more.
Real household income growth is expected at 2.5%. As presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich explained, income levels will be maintained at such a level primarily through payments in the public sector and pension increases. However, incomes will fall sharply for highly paid managers and middle managers. It is possible that the number of civil servants will be reduced.
The government, in its baseline forecast, is not abandoning increases in tariffs for gas, electricity, and rail transportation. Refusing such an increase could indeed cost the country and its citizens dearly — including job cuts and problems with paying wages to employees of monopolies.